Mrs Elle reeve, a British investor, is considering a five-year investment on zero-coupon government bonds. Currently, the annual yield to maturity of British, German and Chinese zero-coupon government bonds maturing in five years is 3%, 5% and 7%, respectively. The spot exchange rate between the GBP and the Euro is £:€ = 1.18, while between the GBP and the CNY is £:CNY = 8.58. According to Mr Lucky’s forecasting models, the spot exchange rates are expected to be £:€ = 1.37 and £:CNY = 8.25 in three years from today.
i) Which of the three bonds would provide the highest cumulative return for Mr Lucky over the next five years, if the exchange rate forecasts turn out to be correct? Provide all your workings and full calculations, when answering this question.
ii) What is the GBP to CNY rate (three-year) forecast that would make Mr Lucky indifferent between investing in either the British or the Chinese bond today? Provide all your workings and full calculations, when answering this question