How can one test, verify, or falsify the plausibility of event A compared to event B?
Suppose I feel that event A is more plausible than event B. How can I test, verify, or falsify this?
For example, suppose I have a belief that my partner is cheating on me. Suppose I have another belief that I have a water bottle in my fridge.
Now of course, I can simply find out in time whether my partner is cheating or open the fridge to see if my water bottle is there. This will falsify or confirm each belief.
But how do I ensure that my credences prior to this verification are accurate? As in, how do I know if it is rational for me to have a higher credence in my partner cheating on me vs. there being a water bottle in my fridge.
Now I understand that there are many factors that might go in this decision, but is it possible for there to be technically better evidence for believing in A over B, but have your conscious experience still have a credence of belief that is higher in B over A? If so, how does one find out?