Weather forecaster can predict hurricanes through two methods:
- by calculating the seasonal probabilities
- by estimating the recent hurricane scenarios.
Explanation:
Prediction of Hurricanes
With the help of elementary statistics, meteorologists can predict the intensity of hurricanes coming in specific regions with the approximate wind speeds. The possible trajectory of hurricanes can be drawn as a cone which is updated by estimating the error in the prediction.
Based on the past events of hurricanes and the current climate conditions, a statistical regression equation is formed. There are many many models such as NHC90 and BAM that help meteorologists to predict the intensity of waves and eventually the probability of hurricanes coming in specific regions.
