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A group of 100 people is tested for a disease, for which there is an infallible but expensive blood test. They are divided into 10 groups of 10 people each, then the people in each group pool their blood. If a test for a group comes our negative, everybody in that group is healthy and no more tests are done. Otherwise, the blood of each of the 10 people in the group is tested separately. Assume that the probability that a person has the disease is, independently, 0.1. Compute the expected number of tests performed.

Respuesta :

Answer:

For the group of 100 people, the expected number of tests performed is 75 tests.

Step-by-step explanation:

We can have two possibilities in each group:

1) The test is negative. In this case, only one test is needed. The probability of this is:

[tex]P(neg)=0.9^{10}=0.35[/tex]

2) The test is positive. In this case, they have to perform an additional 10 test (one for each individual), adding a total of 11 tests. This happens with probability:

[tex]P(pos)=1-0.9^{10}=1-0.35=0.65[/tex]

The expected number of test per group is then:

[tex]10*E(X)=10*(1*0.35+11*0.65)=10(0.35+7.15)=10*7.5=75[/tex]

For the total group of 100 people, the expected number of tests performed is 75 tests.

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