A project being analyzed by PERT has 60 activities, 13 of which are on the critical path. If the estimated time along the critical path is 214 days with a project variance of 100, what is the probability that the project will take 224 days or more to complete:_____

a. near zero
b. 0.0126
c. 0.1587
d. 0.8413
e. 2.14

Respuesta :

Answer:

c. 0.1587

Explanation:

Let x represent no of days for the project to complete

Given, E [x] = 214 =

              [x] = 10

Now, from CLT,  (x - Ц)/б  follows

Standard normal distribution

So, P(x ≥ 224) = P [(x - Ц )/б ≥ (224 - 214) / 10

= p ( z ≥ 1)

= 0.15866

The probability of the project being completed by 224 days is 0.15.

Given that,

A project being analyzed by PERT has 60 activities, 13 of which are on the critical path.

If the estimated time along the critical path is 214 days with a project variance of 100.

We have to determine,

What is the probability that the project will take 224 days or more to complete?

According to the question,

The probability that the project will take 224 days is determined by the formula;

[tex]\rm Z = \dfrac{X-mean}{Standard \ deviation}[/tex]

Where X is 224 and the mean is 214.

The value of the standard deviation is,

[tex]\rm Standard \ deviation = \sqrt{varience}\\\\Standard \ deviation = \sqrt{100}\\\\Standard \ deviation = 10\\[/tex]

Substitute all the values in the formula,

[tex]\\\rm Z = \dfrac{X-mean}{Standard \ deviation}\\\\\rm Z = \dfrac{224-214}{10}\\\\Z = \dfrac{10}{10}\\\\Z= 1[/tex]

For z = 1, the probability is 0.15;

Hence, The probability of the project being completed by 224 days is 0.15.

For more details refer to the link given below.

https://brainly.com/question/16949180