Respuesta :
1. The expected value of the investment is $50,000.
2. The investment is risky because it has only a 0.1% chance of making a significant return.
Data and Calculations:
Investment's worth = $50,000
Expected value
Probability Investment Worth Expected Value
30% $40,000 $12,000 ($40,000 x 30%)
50% $50,100 $25,050 ($50,100 x 50%)
20% $65,000 $13,000 ($65,000 x 20%)
Expected Value of the investment = $50,050
Return on investment = $50 ($50,050 - $50,000)
Probability of return = 0.1% ($50/$50,000 x 100)
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The expected value of an investment is the cummulative sum of the investment worth and its corresponding probability. Hence, the expected value is $50,050 and it is risky.
The expected value of the investment can be calculated thus ;
- E(X) = [ΣX*P(X)]
- X __ 40000 ____ 50100 _____ 65000
- P(X) _ 0.30 _____ 0.50 _______ 0.20
Hence x we'll have ;
E(X) = [(40000 × 0.3) + (50100 × 0.5) + (65000 × 0.2)]
E(X) = 12000 + 25,050 + 13000
E(X) = 50,050
Probability of return :
- Return = 50,050 - 50000 = $50
[tex]\frac{return}{investment \: amount} \times 100[/tex]%
[tex]\frac{50}{50000} \times 100[/tex]% = 0.1%
Hence, the investment is risky as it has a very low probability of yielding a significant return.
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