It is determined by the use of conditional probability that there is a 0.2687, or 26.87%, chance that it originated from distributor C.
Formula for Conditional Probability is :
P(B|A) = P(A∩B) / P(A)
In which
• P(B|A) is the probability of event B happening, given that A happened.
• P(A∩B) is the probability of both A and B happening.
• P(A) is the probability of A happening.
In this problem:
• Event A: Defective.
• Event B: From distributor C.
The percentages of defectives are:
• 0.20 of 1/3(from distributor A).
• 0.50 of 1/3(from distributor B)
• 0.26 of 1/3(from distributor C).
Hence:
P(C) = ( 0.20 +0.50 +0.26)/3
= 0.32
The probability of being defective and from distributor C is:
P(A∩B) = 0.26/3 = 0.086
Hence, the conditional probability is:
P(B|A) = P(A∩B) / P(A) = 0.086/0.32 = 0.2687
0.2687 or 26.87% is the probability that it came from distributor c.
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