Suppose a biological cell contains 400 genes. When treated radioactively the probability that
a gene will change into mutant gene is 0.006 and is independent of the other genes. What is
the approximate probability that there are at most 4 mutant genes after the treatment?

Respuesta :

Let [tex]X\sim\mathrm{Bin}(400,0.006)[/tex] be the random variable representing the number of genes that do get mutated. Here [tex]\mathrm{Bin}(n,p)[/tex] denotes a binomial distribution with parameters [tex]n[/tex] (total number of genes) and [tex]p[/tex] (probability of mutation).

Then the probability that *at most* 4 genes get mutated is

[tex]\mathbb P(X\le4)=\displaystyle\sum_{x=0}^4\mathbb P(X=x)[/tex]

where

[tex]\mathbb P(X=x)=\begin{cases}\dbinom{400}x0.006^x(1-0.006)^{400-x}&\text{for }x\in\{0,1,2,\ldots,400\}\\\\0&\text{otherwise}\end{cases}[/tex]

You should find that

[tex]\mathbb P(X\le4)\approx0.9047[/tex]