0.8973 is the probability that the next tornado will occur within the next seven months.
Applying the rule of three, we can infer that since the average number of tornadoes in a year is 3.9, the average number of tornadoes in a nine-month period is 3.9*7/12 = 2.275. It is reasonable to believe that the distribution of tornadoes over time is Poisson. Let's refer to X as the number of tornadoes in a seven-month period. X has a Poisson distribution with a parameter of 2.27.
The probability of X being greater than or equal to 1 is equivalent to the likelihood that the next tornado will occur within the next seven months.. However P(X≥1) = 1-P(X=0), and
[tex]p(X=0) = (e^{2.275} * 2.275^{0}) / 0![/tex] = 0.1027
Thus, the probability that the next tornado comes within the next 7 months is 1-0.1027 = 0.8973.
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